? ? ? ? 在7月28日畜牧業畜牧業信息化2019峰會上,農業農村部全國畜牧總站處長/信息中心主任田建華做了題為《2019年上半年全國飼料生產形勢分析》的報告,中國飼料行業信息網記者現場整理!

一、我國飼料工業發展概況
1、近10年飼料總產值、總營收和產量情況:
2008年飼料總產值4258億元 ,2018年飼料總產值8872億元;
2008年飼料總營收4128億元 ,2018年飼料總營收8689億元;
2018年飼料工業總產值8872億元,其中,飼料加工品占88.7%,飼料添加劑占10.6%,飼料機械占0.7%;
總產量:2008年1.37億噸,2018年2.28億噸,連續4年產量破2億噸,連續9年居世界第一,約占全球總量的1/4。

2、2018年飼料生產情況:
2018年配合飼料比重90%,濃縮占7%,添加劑預混料占3%;
2018年:豬料9720萬噸,蛋禽、肉禽、水產、反芻飼料分別為2984萬噸、6509萬噸、2211萬噸、1004萬噸,其它飼料360萬噸;
2018年從飼料品種來看,豬料占43%,禽料占42%(蛋禽13%、肉禽29%),水產10%,反芻4%,其它2%。
近5年(2013-2018年),我國配合飼料、添加劑預混料累計增長分別為21%和2%,濃縮飼料累計下降25%。
3、從近5年品種結構變化來看:
2013-2018年,肉禽、水產、反芻累計增長29%、16%、15%;豬料、蛋禽料累計增長13%、3%,意味著肉禽、水產和反芻飼料品種未來的增長潛力和增長速率。
豬、肉禽飼料相互替代效應較為明顯,2008年豬料占比27%,禽料36%,2018年豬料占比41%,禽料占比31%;
2019年1月豬料占比46%,禽料占比30.9%,6月份豬料占比34.9%,禽料占比35.3%。
4、從2018年飼料生產區域情況看:
上千萬噸的省份有11個,占全國75%左右,分別是山東、廣東、廣西、河北、江蘇、湖南、遼寧、四川、河南、湖北和江西;
第二梯隊是300萬噸以上的,分別是:福建、安徽、吉林、浙江、云南、內蒙古、黑龍江、陜西和重慶;
飼料產量最少的10省份是:海南、陜西、天津、新疆、北京、貴州、上海、甘肅、寧夏和青海;

配合料前10?。荷綎|、廣東、廣西、江蘇、湖南、河北、湖北、四川、遼寧、江西;
濃縮料前10?。哼|寧、黑龍江、河北、山東、云南、河南、吉林、內蒙古、四川、陜西;
添加劑預混料前10?。荷綎|、廣東、河南、江西、湖南、北京、江蘇、四川、河北、天津;
飼料企業加工數量(有證的):2008年13612家,2018年8012家,企業數量趨于穩定,單場規??焖偬岣?,其中年產10萬噸以上的飼料企業從2008年187家增加到2018年656家,他們的飼料產量占全國飼料總產量的近50%。
二、2019上半年全國飼料生產形勢分析
2019年上半年飼料總產量9306萬噸,累計同比下降0.5%;配合飼料8583萬噸,累計同比上升0.3%,濃縮料508萬噸,累計同比下降9%,添加劑預混料214萬噸,累計同比下降7.8%。
1-6月豬料產量3630萬噸,同比下降14%
1-6月仔豬料產量1259萬噸,同比下降24.9%
1-6月母豬料產量476萬噸,同比下降24.7%
1-6月育肥豬飼料產量1655萬噸,同比上升0.9%
1-6月蛋禽飼料產量1303萬噸,同比上升10.5%
1-6月肉禽飼料產量3279萬噸,同比上升12.4%
1-6月反芻飼料產量442萬噸,同比上升4.9%
小結
1、上半年全國飼料生產平穩,生產結構適應性調整優化,反映出上半年畜產品生產能力總體穩定,市場供應有保障。
2、從飼料生產數據看,生豬產能與2018年上半年相比明顯下調,主要原因是受非洲豬瘟疫情影響。肉禽、蛋禽和反芻動物養殖發展勢頭良好。
3、豬價回升、補欄沒有增加,近兩個月有下調力度加大的趨勢。
4、蛋禽、肉禽產能顯著高于去年同期,養殖積極性高。
5、受非洲豬瘟影響,養殖端對飼料需求不旺,主要飼料原料玉米豆粕弱價運行。
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